Halloween Flood of 2019

I don't know if any of this will make sense to anyone.  I have been thinking about writing this since the flood occurred.  The damage sustained in the park this time is significant, but we will recover and we will be open for business next spring.  The store will be brighter and fresh and new.  The bathrooms will be new and beautiful to see.  Some things we don't know about...the Lil Red Caboose - we have to wait until spring to see the total damage done - what is working and what is not.  The pool - again we can't tell what the damage under the cover is.  Will the pool heater work?  We wait.  

I will say that neither Sandy nor I are quitters and while it is going to be tough, we will come out in the end.

We own and operate West Canada Creek Campsites, located on the West Canada Creek just west of the village of Poland on State Route 28.  My family purchased this property in February of 2005.  We have owned and operated this campground for 15 years. 

Prior to our ownership, the park was owned by two other individuals beginning in 1982.  In that time until 2006, no one experienced flooding on the scale we have seen.  In fact, when doing my due diligence and researching this property for flooding issues – the last major flood was 1947.  There were minor flooding issues, but the river never did the damage nor rose to the levels we have seen in the years we have owned the park. 

This most recent flood event was a serious wake up call to all who live along the West Canada.  Prior flood events above the bridge on Route 28 in Poland we exacerbated by the low old bridge.  The bridge was replaced in 2016 (check date) and the engineers that met at our public meetings told us the water would never touch the new bridge.  Silly statement indeed.  In addition to raising the bridge approximate 8 feet, the project also widened the river by over 50 feet which allowed significantly more water through.  

So why did we flood so badly on the days following Halloween 2019? 

Many people will say that the flooding was caused by the significant rainfall the occurred on the 30^th and 31^st.  While many in our community experienced significant damage from the onslaught of rain that occurred and many road ways and some bridges that were washed out as well as several significant landslides that occurred along State Route 28 just west of West Canada Valley Central School, the catastrophic damage that was done along the West Canada Creek might have been reduced had those operating the dam at Hinckley Reservoir paid heed to the projected rainfall and lowered the dam during the 10 days prior to Halloween, instead of waiting until October 29^th to try and lower the water level. 

The chart to the left from the USGS website shows that the rainfall that occurred on October 14 – 16 raised the water level in Hinckley Reservoir over 10 feet.  The amount of rainfall during this event was in the range of 2.5 – 3.5 inches of rain.

From October 19 through October 29 (Chart on next page) there was no attempt made to lower the reservoir and the water level stayed at the top of the spillway (the green line on the chart) for the ensuing 10 days.  This failure to lower the reservoir was disastrous to those living and working along the West Canada Creek.  The release schedule seen in the next chart shows that there was no attempt to lower the reservoir – even though the National Weather Service was calling for significant rain on Halloween from a Tropical Depression moving from the Gulf of Mexico up the Mississippi River Valley, through the Ohio River Valley into the Adirondack Region.

The above chart taken from the website (http://www.canals.ny.gov/wwwapps/waterlevels/hinckley/hinckleywaterlevels.aspx) shows that the release from Hinckley Reservoir on October 17^th was 891 CFS and until October 28^th the release was not increased significantly even though the threat for a significant rainfall was predicted.

The chart left shows what the water levels in Hinckley Reservoir were from October 4^th through November 10^th.   

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The chart above shows the river gauge on the West Canada Creek at Wilmurt during the event. Wilmurt is above Hinckley Reservoir and this gauge shows the inflow.  Note that the stream gauge stopped working for a period of time due to the extreme high level of water and possibly debris floating that caused failure.  It stopped working when the water level was at approximately 19,000 CFS

This chart shows the inflows from the Black Creek to Hinckley Reservoir.  Black Creek maxed out at about 7000 CFS on November 1^st, 2019. 

What does this all mean?  To understand this let try to understand the numbers.  One Cubic Foot of Water (CF) is equal to 7.48 gallons.  I will use 7.5 to keep the math easier.  One acre of water, one foot deep is equal to 325,851 gallons.  The surface area of Hinckley Reservoir is approximately 2,867 square acres.  As the water level decreases the number of acres decreases as the width decreases due to the sloped shoreline.  I will concede a 3% reduction in surface area for every foot of decrease in the reservoir water level.

Factor	Water Elevation	Surface Area	Gallons/Acre	Total Gallons	Accume Total
1	1224	2867.00	325851	934,214,817
0.97	1223	2780.99	325851	906,188,372	1,840,403,189
0.94	1222	2694.98	325851	878,161,928	2,718,565,117
0.91	1221	2608.97	325851	850,135,483	3,568,700,601
0.88	1220	2522.96	325851	822,109,039	4,390,809,640
0.85	1219	2436.95	325851	794,082,594	5,184,892,234
0.82	1218	2350.94	325851	766,056,150	5,950,948,384
0.79	1217	2264.93	325851	738,029,705	6,688,978,090
0.76	1216	2178.92	325851	710,003,261	7,398,981,351
0.73	1215	2092.91	325851	681,976,816	8,080,958,167
0.7	1214	2006.90	325851	653,950,372	8,734,908,539
0.67	1213	1920.89	325851	625,923,927	9,360,832,466

Cubic Feet per Second (CFS) is equal to a cubic foot of water passing a given point every second.  At the height of the event the West Canada Creek had in excess of 19,000 CFS flowing into Hinckley Reservoir and the Black Creek had in excess of 7,000 CFS flowing into Hinckley Reservoir.  These numbers equaled a combined inflow 729,000,000 or almost 730 million gallons per hour flowing into Hinckley Reservoir.  Had the powers that be lowered Hinckley Reservoir 10 or 11 feet prior to the storm, the reservoir would have been able to absorb approximately 9 billion gallons before it began to overflow instead of the 900 million gallons at the level of 1223 would allow.  And while I will grant you that we still would have flooded, the timing might have been changed to later in the day allowing more people to prepare, instead of water coming up 9 inches every 30 minutes at 7:30 a.m. when we were forced to abandon our property to the mercy of the river. 

With the inflow of 729 million and the outflow at max of 97 million gallons per hour the reservoir would have still hit flood stage, but later in the day and not as severe.  

 

I would also like to ask the really important question of why did Hinckley Reservoir NEVER turn on their Emergency Contact Process?  In other flood events, the local fire departments were notified of impending flooding and were more prepared to notify and evacuate people.  In 2011 and 2014 the Oneida County Emergency Management team notified us ahead of time and even provided sand bags to help mitigate flood damage.  Prior to the Halloween storm there was NO notifications made. 

Assemblyman Mark Butler came to our property during his term 24 – 26 hours ahead of prior flood events to notify me to prepare for the flooding.  Communication was made and people were able to prepare and evacuate safely, this time, people in the community were given NO WARNING.  Senior citizens were awoken in the early morning hours and evacuated with a front loader carrying them through the rising waters as the boats were too slow.  Many were unable to pack anything other than the clothing they wore and their cars were left to the mercy of the waters.

 

We seem to be flooding about every 5 years on average since 2006.  The people in control of the reservoir seem to be less responsible and less knowledgeable on how to control the dam and minimize the damage to downstream residents.  What is the answer?  I am not a hydrologist, meteorologist or expert in water control, but something needs to be done.  While not the only solution to the problem, but the one factor that no one will talk about is the removal of the Gray Reservoir.  It was removed in 2002 (check date) and since its removal we have had 4 floods.  I am told by the “old timers” that many years ago the canal corporation used to send people into the woods to measure the snow pack then they would lower the reservoir accordingly preparing for the spring runoff.  Do they still do this?? 

It seems to me that flooding is becoming a way of life, and frankly, this last storm will cost me well over $150,000 or more and will make it that much harder to prepare for the next flood.

Recent Crests
(1) 1,231.49 ft on 11/01/2019 (P)
(2) 1,228.05 ft on 04/21/2019 (P)
(3) 1,227.13 ft on 04/12/2017
(4) 1,227.06 ft on 04/22/2015 (P)
(5) 1,229.05 ft on 04/16/2014
(6) 1,228.02 ft on 07/03/2013
(7) 1,227.23 ft on 06/29/2013
(8) 1,227.49 ft on 04/20/2013
(9) 1,230.73 ft on 04/28/2011
(10) 1,227.18 ft on 04/14/2011
(11) 1,229.85 ft on 06/29/2006
(12) 1,227.22 ft on 04/25/2005

Purchased Park

(13) 1,228.15 ft on 05/25/2004
(14) 1,227.90 ft on 04/25/2001
(15) 1,227.30 ft on 12/03/1996
(16) 1,227.20 ft on 04/24/1996
(17) 1,227.20 ft on 10/22/1995
(18) 1,223.40 ft on 01/22/1995
(19) 1,227.80 ft on 04/26/1994
(20) 1,228.40 ft on 04/17/1993
(21) 1,226.90 ft on 04/24/1992
(22) 1,227.40 ft on 12/31/1990
(23) 1,227.90 ft on 03/18/1990
(24) 1,227.60 ft on 04/07/1989
(25) 1,226.20 ft on 04/08/1988
(26) 1,228.70 ft on 04/28/1980
(27) 1,228.00 ft on 12/28/1973
(28) 1,227.90 ft on 05/19/1973
(29) 1,228.70 ft on 05/04/1972
(30) 1,227.50 ft on 04/29/1970
(31) 1,227.90 ft on 04/20/1969
(32) 1,230.20 ft on 10/02/1945  Last Major Flood Prior to 2005

(P): Preliminary values subject to further review.